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Home >> Industry Pulse >>2020 >> Industry Pulse about COVID-19 | February 2020
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Industry Pulse about COVID-19 | February 2020

Industry Pulse about COVID-19 | 会员行业疫情影响洞察


Up until 24th February, COVID-19 has caused approximately 77,000 confirmed cases and over 2,500 deaths globally. Since February, the Chinese government has been assisting retail and corporates companies alike to resume economic activity, in phases based on city level and the monitoring of the coronavirus spread. While manufacturing activities in the next few weeks will resume back to normal, with those who are capable of producing medical supplies have already resumed their work, however many service sector may still be affected until April, probably May in some cases. There is no direct guide from the Public Security Bureau yet on when public gatherings can occur. The ripple affect of the outbreak is yet to be fully felt, with a bounce back of potential job losses as the scale of the impact is assessed and felt – President Xi was quoted as saying it's a ‘Big Test' to combat the virus, the test itself will be if businesses can handle the mounting debt that companies may have to bear to pay workers and suppliers during this ‘freeze’. Banks are being asked to offer more credit as millions of companies are trying to stay afloat – BritCham GD predict a tough year for many SME’s across China, Guangdong is no different yet there is hope that the Pearl River Delta region has held its own with the strong GDP growth in south China, will pass this economical test still.

 

During this virus outbreak, through BritCham GD member’s discussions have indicated that a few major industries have been affected substantially. 


Industry Pulse about COVID-19 | 会员行业疫情影响洞察

Since 2003, China has established itself as an automotive powerhouse and now serves as a major supplier to global automakers, which makes COVID-19 poised to be much more disruptive now.

 

Computer, electronic, optical products, electrical equipment, other machinery and equipment and motor vehicles and trailers are the most impacted manufacturing sectors in this epidemic due to concentrated operations near the affected areas and components often heavily customized, making it challenging for factories to relocate outside of China in the short term.


Industry Pulse about COVID-19 | 会员行业疫情影响洞察

Image source from McKinsey


The outbreak comes at a time of already slumping sales, heightened trade tensions and dampened forecasts — China auto sales fell 2.8% in 2019 amidst global trade tensions, the first decline in nearly two decades. More than 60% of Chinese automotive light vehicle production is based in provinces currently affected by government mandated production shutdowns, leading to an estimate of US$9Bn productions losses per week. It’s not just about production, but sales too, the BBC news reported that during the lunar festival period, car sales in China fell 92%, selling only 811 vehicles in total.


Industry Pulse about COVID-19 | 会员行业疫情影响洞察


Industry Pulse about COVID-19 | 会员行业疫情影响洞察

In today's world, China is one of the largest contributors for outbound travel and tourism spending. As the longest public holiday in China, Chinese New Year is one of the most important periods for tourism industry globally. According to McKinsey Global Institute, in 2019, CNY period accounted for nearly 10% of the total tourism year spending. Hence, this lunar holiday should have been a busy business period for many travel agencies and hotels.

 

Due to this outbreak, the industry is greatly dampened with travel bans by over 50 countries or territories. At the time of writing, the airline industry has predicted US$30Bn in loss of earnings, with further losses to tourism business in countries such as Australia and Japan; along with forecasted hit on the cruise line industry due to the number of affected cases on one such liner in Japan. Consumer confidence on such luxury holidays will take time to recover.

 

Closer to home, all restaurant and hotels have close to zero profit, some 5-star luxury hotels reporting only 4 guests in total at one point; with bars closed for business and restaurants switching to creating online delivery services – only returning district by district in the major cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen for seated dining.


Industry Pulse about COVID-19 | 会员行业疫情影响洞察


Since social gathering has been curbed in China with it slowly being allowed, albeit restricted in terms of proximity, customer flow in domestic boutiques and luxury shopping malls has plunged and it has afflicted the demand for non-staple luxury goods such as wines, spirits. As a result, 24 of British brand Burberry’s 64 stores in Mainland China are closed with remaining stores operating with reduced hours and seeing significant footfall declines.

 

With factories closing for such a prolonged period, designer brands as well as phones and luxury cars have seen product shortages. At the same time, the lack of Chinese shopping tourism has seen profits plunge for some luxury houses – UK luxury goods expert say that Chinese shopping tourism accounts for 1 job for every 20 Chinese tourist visiting the UK.

 

Similar to tourism industry, the luxury sector is likely to, as with SARs, rapidly recover once disease is perceived to be “under control”, which means that customers deferring their spending rather than not spending at all. Consumer confidence will take longer to return than economic restart. Consumer spend to remain muted until Q2 2020; but; if the disease peaks by April/May, recovery would start in 2H2020.


Industry Pulse about COVID-19 | 会员行业疫情影响洞察

Image source from Mckinsey


Industry Pulse about COVID-19 | 会员行业疫情影响洞察


Contributed by BritCham Member:     savills


拐点之后,经济复苏将循序渐进

尽管短期难免经历大幅冲击,但支撑中国长期发展的基本面不变,经济增速亦将随疫情结束而回归潜在正常速率。预计随着改革推进,将吸引更多外资涌入中国。而疫情引发的思考与经验将引导政府完善治理水平,优化社会环境。


新冠疫情发生正值经济转型时期,预计后续复苏将聚焦深化改革、产业升级、区域一体化、跨部门协作等关键领域。


房地产细分市场的韧性与机会


办公楼市场: 短期承压,关注重点行业

  • 大量企业员工转为在家办公,在智能办公平台、在线办公工具的辅助下,企业服务端的运营并未停摆。

  • 企业短期关注焦点仍在复工时间、员工安全等疫情相关层面。疫情完全结束后将在一两个月后陆续重估公司业务发展、选址搬迁事项。

  • 交付延迟将导致全年供应将有所下降,市场近年供过于求的压力将略有缓解。

  • 雇主对健康的持续关注及对高品质物业管理的需求,将令优质甲级办公楼的价值更为凸显。

  • 由于小型租户居多、短期租约为主,加之更多员工转而在家办公,联合办公在此轮疫情中经受剧烈冲击。

  • 预计医疗、保险、科技行业在疫情后将迎来巨大发展机遇,业主应把握窗口期加以关注。

  • 中短期内,大中型国企将成为市场需求主力,伴随改革开放力度增大,外企需求有望增长。

 

Industry Pulse about COVID-19 | 会员行业疫情影响洞察


零售市场: 各业态影响不同,期待反弹


Industry Pulse about COVID-19 | 会员行业疫情影响洞察


  • 若新冠疫情在今年3月底之前得以有效控制,零售市场有望随之逐步回暖。

  • 品牌年度焦点已转至夏季后的市场,预计下半年伴随大量推广活动,市场将重现活力。

  • 部分品牌临时关闭店铺,一季度甚至上半年销售将受影响,但几乎没有品牌质疑市场长期前景。年内品牌将着重于重估年度增长目标及开店计划。

  • 多个业主为租户提供一周至两个月不等的免租期共度难关,市场租金短期内将有所下调,但预计此举难以延续至下一季度。

  • 疫情期间消费方式向线上转移,将引发更多品牌探索线上线下结合途径。

  • 由于方便居民日常消费,加之更多外卖配送服务应用至商场商户,优质的社区型商业此次展现出较好韧性,预计将持续获得投资者关注。


住宅市场: 核心城市积压需求有待陆续释放

  • 自2018年下半年起,一二线城市一手住宅市场始终维持温和而稳健的态势,即使政策层面放松幅度极其微弱,充沛的自住用户群体带来韧性需求。

  • 自预计在疫情过后,积压的购房需求陆续释放,核心城市的销售市场自年中起有望率先逐步回暖。

  • 就业者在选择工作城市时,将更多关注社会治理及教育、医疗等公共服务因素。

  • 小体量、小地块、物业服务品质好、私密性强的项目或将成为新的开发焦点。

  • 受新冠疫情影响,部分开发商相继延迟了开工时间,大多数开发商开工时间推迟一个月,项目销售及资金回笼受到较大挑战, 将令年中至下半年推盘意愿增强。

  • 市场拿地及开发节奏将在下半年逐步恢复正常。


Industry Pulse about COVID-19 | 会员行业疫情影响洞察


高端服务式公寓市场: 挖掘新兴需求机会

  • 以公司外派人员为主要客户群的高端酒店公寓市场或需较长复苏时期,以待消化市场负面情绪,及客户回国工作。

  • 业主需从国内及本地市场挖掘更多新兴出现的潜在需求机会。

  • 短租需求有望在暑期迎来起色。

  • 近两年来政府支持的租赁市场在此次疫情中经受较多争议,部分租客权利无法有效保障,需后续政策给予更多指引。


投资市场:回归核心城市

  • 市场短期面临的不确定因素增加,投资者选择观望以等待合适时机出现。

  • 现金流困难的业主将面临更大的降价压力回笼资金,看好长期的机会型投资者可择机入市。

  • 不良贷款数量或将有所增加,而预计政府将有相关政策出台避免数额大幅攀升。

  • 无论整售或土地市场仍有大型成交达成(如北京LG双子座大厦售予GIC),长期投资者对市场关注度依然不减。

  • 一线开发商有望获得更好的资本支持,令市场强者愈强的局面进一步巩固。

  • 疫情过后,后续政策鼓励的投资方向预计将继续倾向于医疗、康养相关领域。对项目设计或将有更多公共因素考量,以帮助城市应对各种紧急及突发事件。


更多关于疫情影响下的房地产行业资讯,请点击此处


Want to contact BritCham members who contributed to the above reports?

Want to contribute your report to BritCham Newsletter?

Please contact events@britchamgd.com



Reference: 

Coronavirus COVID-19 Crisis Response - Mckinsey






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